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2018-11-13 November – NWSOFA Fiscal and Economic Issue Team November Meeting
November 13, 2018 @ 7:00 pm - 9:00 pm
NWSOFA
Fiscal and Economic Issues November Meeting
DEMS OFFICE
1310 W. Northwest Highway
Arlington Heights
Hi All,
Based on feedback, next Tuesday, November 13th at 7 p.m. was the preferred date for our November Fiscal and Economic Issues meeting. The meeting will be held at the Dem’s office, 1310 W. Northwest Highway in Arlington Heights. I will send an RSVP link when I send out the November update. But please plan to attend.
We didn’t have a meeting in October to give people a chance to work on elections, so we have two months of data to update. Plus I’m sure we will discuss Tuesday’s elections. New governor, plus many local winners including at least a couple on this invite list. Congratulations!!
Let us know of other topics you would like to discuss.
Attached is the update for October. We will get out a November update before the meeting. Some highlights:
- Job creation in Trump’s first 20 months through September 2018 was 3.80 million (190,000/month), vs. 4.15 million in Obama’s last 20 months (208,000/month). Job creation has been positive each month starting October 2010 (96 months). Private sector job growth has been positive since March 2010;
- Update for October: September’s job growth was only 118,000, probably due to the effects of Hurricane Florence. October’s job growth was 250,000, probably representing at least a partial recovery of jobs lost in September. Average job growth for the two months is 184,000 per month.
- The unemployment rate hit 3.7% in September 2018, the lowest since the late 1960’s and below the April 2000 rate of 3.8%. The unemployment rate has fallen consistently since its peak of 10.0% in October 2010.
- Real wage growth has averaged 0.3% per month (measured vs. year-ago level) during the Trump Administration, vs. 0.8% per month during the Obama Administration. Higher inflation (due mainly to energy prices) has offset rising nominal wages.
- CBO reported the budget deficit for FY2018 at $782 billion, up $116 billion (18%) vs. 2017 but up $295 billion (61%) vs. the January 2017 baseline estimate for FY2018. The deficit was 3.9% GDP in 2018 vs. 3.5% GDP in 2017. The debt addition trajectory for 2018-2027 has increased from $9.4 trillion (January 2017 baseline) to $13.7 trillion (April 2018 current policy baseline), an increase of $4.3 trillion or 46%. These increases are driven by tax cuts and spending increases and consider economic feedback.
- Real GDP growth was 3.5% in Q3 2018, down from 4.2% in the 2nd quarter. Net imports were a sizable drag, inventory building was a significant boost, and business investment was a small negative contributor. Most forecasters predict the real GDP growth rate will continue to trend down to below 2% by 2020.
On the state level, Illinois’ job growth continues to lag under Governor Rauner. Job growth by Illinois budget year (July-June):
Quinn budget years (in thousands):
| 2010 |
-31.4 |
| 2011 |
60.8 |
| 2012 |
76.0 |
| 2013 |
52.4 |
| 2014 |
81.6 |
| 2015 |
93.1 |
Rauner Budget years:
| 2016 |
29.6 |
| 2017 |
64.5 |
| 2018 |
57.4 |
2019 ytd (3 months through September) = minus 300 jobs
|
